Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning Improve Despite Puerto Rico Backlash

A prominent bookmaker has cut the odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election over the past few days despite an ongoing row over a speaker calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” at a rally held by the Republican candidate in New York.
Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made the remark during Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden in Manhattan. Bookmaker Star Sports offered odds of 4/6 (60 percent) on Trump securing the White House before the rally, but this had been slashed to 4/7 (63.6 percent) at 5:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
Polling suggests the presidential race remains razor tight, with the latest analysis by election website FiveThirtyEight, published on Monday, giving Trump a 54 percent chance of victory versus 46 percent for Vice President Kamala Harris. Consequently, there is a laser focus on both campaigns for any perceived gaffes ahead of Election Day.
Star Sports betting analyst William Kedjanyi told Newsweek that “despite recent controversy at his rally at Madison Square Garden, Trump’s odds of returning to the White House have actually shortened from 4/6 on Saturday morning into 4/7.
“Democrat nominee Kamala Harris appears to be struggling to arrest her slide, drifting to 13/8 having been 7/5 at the end of last week.”
Kedjanyi added: “Confidence in Trump is growing to such an extent that his odds of winning all seven swing states have also shortened, from 9/4 (30.8 percent) to 15/8 (34.8 percent).”
Trump’s odds of winning have also been cut by Betfair, from Trump 5/8 (62%) on Sunday morning to Trump 4/7 (64%) on Tuesday.
“While the Trump campaign has had to distance itself from derogatory comments about Puerto Rico made at his Madison Square Garden rally, the betting markets continue to back Trump to win the White House,” Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek.
“In fact, as of today, Trump’s odds have been slashed to their shortest level since Biden stepped aside. Trump is now sitting at 4/7 odds on the Betfair Exchange, a whopping 64 percent chance of winning. No matter what obstacles he faces, Teflon Don seems to bounce back even stronger among punters [bettors].”
Republican National Committee spokesperson Taylor Rogers welcomed the change in Trump’s odds.
“President Trump is the most iconic presidential candidate in history—from historic rallies filling Madison Square Garden to record-breaking podcasts with giants like Joe Rogan and Elon Musk,” Rogers told Newsweek.
“President Trump’s message of hope and his America First agenda resonates with hard-working Americans and their families, and that is why he is winning or tied in every battleground state. The momentum is on our side because voters know Kamala [Harris] broke our country, and President Trump is the only one who can fix it.”
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign for comment on Tuesday via email outside of regular office hours.
During his address at Madison Square Garden, Hinchcliffe said: “I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico.”
On Monday, the archbishop of San Juan de Puerto Rico urged Trump to apologize for Hinchcliffe’s remark in a letter to the former president, later published on social media.
“I call upon you, Mr. Trump, to disavow these comments as reflecting in any way your personal or political viewpoints. It is not sufficient for your campaign to apologize. It is important that you, personally, apologize for these comments,” Archbishop Roberto González Nieves wrote.
Angel Cintrón, the chairman of the Republican Party of Puerto Rico, on Monday said he wouldn’t support Trump unless the Republican presidential nominee apologizes for Hinchcliffe’s comments.
He said: “If Donald Trump doesn’t apologize to Puerto Rico, I’m not going to vote for him.”
People living in Puerto Rico can’t cast more than a symbolic vote in the presidential election, but the estimated six million Puerto Ricans living in the mainland United States are eligible to vote. The key battleground state of Pennsylvania has a notable concentration.
Hinchcliffe defended his joke on X, formerly Twitter, insisting he “made fun of everyone” during the event.
Addressing criticism from Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, he added: “I love Puerto Rico and vacation there. I made fun of everyone…watch the whole set. I’m a comedian Tim…might be time to change your tampon.”
Some Republicans have branded Walz “Tampon Tim” in response to his signing a bill as governor of Minnesota that required free menstrual products to be stocked in school bathrooms.
The latest analysis of recent polling by FiveThirtyEight, released on Monday, gave Harris a 1.4 percent lead with 48.1 percent of the vote against 46.6 percent for Trump.
However, due to the Electoral College system, Trump could lose the popular vote but still win overall, as he did in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
Update 10/29/24, 11:45 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with odds from Betfair and comment from Republican National Committee spokesperson Taylor Rogers.